Augur predictor blockchain is a platform with its own quite successful tokens, built on the basis of Ethereum smart contracts.
Anyone Can Become An Oracle In The Augur Blockchain
You can predict anything, and at the same time bet any amount. MMA fights, baseball, and basketball, the election of the American president, the reconciliation of the English princes, cryptocurrency courses, whether it will rain — the events the outcome of which must be predicted are offered by the users themselves. If the prediction was correct, both the predictors and the oracles are rewarded.
Oracles use their REP token, which stands for Reputation, to participate. A simple participant does not need to use this token, they can make transactions using ether or any other currency based on it. It is also worth taking into account that Augur does not have its wallet, so to store this currency, you need to use universal wallets that support several cryptocurrencies. You can buy REP on major exchanges for bitcoins or ether, or you can buy it for dollars or euros. REP mining is also available, similar to mining in Ethereum.
How To Trade Predictions
To create your own market, you need to spend a certain amount of cryptocurrency (ether) and formulate a prediction topic. After that, the person who opened the prediction issues the so-called shares, which will be redeemed by the participants in the prediction. The initiator of the prediction can also purchase shares in his vote.
The prediction price is formed depending on which shares for which amount were bought out in the prediction. The nominal value of the share is $1. If 51% of the prediction participants believe that the programmed event will occur, a nominal $0.51 must be spent to purchase a share in the “Yes” answer.
There is no need to wait for the results of the event itself. Over time, for example, the share of a positive response will increase, and any investor can sell their share for a new price.
When the event itself occurs, it is up to the oracles: they certify its result by the size of their bets. The oracles will be rewarded afterward, and you, if you bought your share in “Yes” for 51 cents and the event actually took place, will receive $1 for every 51 cents bet.
Under The Wing Of Ethereum
The initial coin offering of REP tokens turned out to be one of the successful in the crypto industry — the creators of Augur, programmers Joey Krug and Jack Peterson, raised $5.5 million. A total of 11 million tokens were issued, for 60 cents each. Now the REP exchange rate exceeds $20.
Ethereum also acts as a technological platform for the project — it is based on more than a hundred smart contracts of ether that the prediction project is built, which is currently the most ambitious project on this platform.
It is impossible to shut down this service or take complete control because, like any decentralized project, it has no main servers or control centers. Besides the game function, Augur does an excellent job with another — predictive.
The Wisdom Of The Crowd
A month before the lower house of the U.S. Congress impeached Donald Trump, members of the Augur project predicted this event with a 75% probability. The final withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union by November 1, 2019, was also successfully predicted.
It means that the average prediction made by a group of people exceeds the average reliability of the prediction made by any one individual. This means that if you select 100 topics for prediction, the percentage of successful collective divination will be higher than any individual indicator.
The unexpected collective wisdom effect, described in 2004 by financial analyst James Surowiecki — is a powerful tool in predicting global processes and analyzing public opinion fluctuations. This makes the platform an area for special attention of political scientists and stock analysts, since watching the crowd increases their chance of accurate predictions.
Although we said at the beginning that you can vote here for anything, for the sake of fairness it is necessary to highlight the current trends, which are shown by the project participants. The volume of deals on political topics significantly exceeds the share in sports predictions.
In 2015, Augur was considered a revolutionary project, often an underrated one. Now we can say that it is confidently on its feet and is one of the most famous prediction markets. But not the only one. Just like Augur, Gnosis, its direct competitor, benefits from blockchain technology and interest in cryptocurrency.